Scientific and practical expert report on the individual risk assessment in the event of expulsion or transfer to the Russian Federation

Methodological separation (4 levels)

The report methodologically distinguishes four levels: first, established procedural facts; second, publicly documented contextual information about the human rights situation in the Russian Federation; third, individual risk factors in the case of Dmitry Bagrash; and fourth, the resulting legal assessments. This separation is intended both to avoid overstatement of the factual case and to place the legal conclusion on a transparent, source-bound basis.

Methodological note on OSCE and Russian media sources: Where records from the OSCE documentation system are analysed, they are not understood as the OSCE itself endorsing the substance of the statements disseminated there. What matters is that certain statements by the Russian delegation were officially documented and disseminated, as evidence of how certain individuals are perceived by Russian State bodies. Russian State and State-aligned media sources are likewise used as evidence of the public visibility of Dmitry Bagrash and UnKremlin e.V. in the Russian information space, rather than as evidence that the allegations they disseminate are true.

Normative basis of the risk assessment

• Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees, Art. 33 Abs. 1 — the prohibition of refoulement under international law as the basic standard for assessing return.
• UN Convention against Torture, Art. 3 — prohibition of return where there are substantial grounds for believing that there is a risk of torture.
• International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, Art. 7, 9, 14 — protection against torture, arbitrary deprivation of liberty and unfair criminal proceedings.

Central individual risk factor: UnKremlin e.V.

An additional factor increasing risk is Dmitry Bagrash’s public connection with UnKremlin e.V. According to the available indications, that organisation is treated as undesirable in Russia. Association with such a structure alone may, in the Russian context, trigger surveillance, intimidation, repressive pressure or increased exposure to criminal prosecution. No particular formal leadership role is required for the assessment; what matters is that the public connection with the activities of UnKremlin e.V. must be considered part of the individual risk profile.

Annexes A1–A7 (extract from the list of annexes)

Annex A3: documentation of the public activities of Dmitry Bagrash and the association UnKremlin e.V. (2021–2026) · further annexes: an audiovisual source with a transcript and explanations concerning the persons/organisations/media mentioned, and publicly available indications concerning the designation of UnKremlin e.V. as an undesirable organisation.

15.1. Expert conclusion

The facts gathered, taken together, strongly support the assessment that Dmitry Bagrash would face a significantly increased individual risk of serious human rights infringements if transferred under the jurisdiction of the Russian Federation. This risk does not arise from a general presumption about the human rights situation in the Russian Federation alone, but from the cumulative effect of several individually documented risk factors:

• Documented public visibility as an activist critical of the regime
• Public connection with UnKremlin e.V.
• Documented mention of that organisation in an official statement by the Russian OSCE delegation
• Documented international media coverage of the person and his political activities
• Documented public treatment of him in Russian State media
• The current human rights situation in the Russian Federation and documented patterns of repression against publicly known critics of the regime

The available findings permit the conclusion that Dmitry Bagrash would not be treated as an ordinary returnee if transferred to Russia. From the expert perspective, the risk of politically motivated prosecution, measures depriving him of liberty, inhuman or degrading treatment, inadequate legal protection and other serious infringements of the legal interests protected by Art. 3 EMRK appears significant.

15.2. Expert recommendations

1. Refrain from any State measure that could lead to the transfer of Dmitry Bagrash under the jurisdiction of the Russian Federation until the identified individual risks have been comprehensively examined.
2. Carry out a fully individualised risk assessment in the subsequent administrative or judicial proceedings, taking account of all documented individual risk factors and the current human rights situation in the Russian Federation.
3. In the legal assessment, respect the absolute protection afforded by Art. 3 EMRK, Art. 19 Abs. 2 of the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the EU and other relevant norms of international and human rights law.